What is Confirmation Bias?

We all have biases. It is inevitable. A bias is a tendency, inclination, or prejudice towards ourselves or someone else. 

There are many different classes of biases, but this article will focus on confirmation bias.

What is confirmation bias?

I will give you an example. Have you ever started thinking about someone and immediately your phone rings and it is that specific person calling you? Most would see it as a coincidence, but others might see it as ESP. Extra Sensory Perception or not, but if you talk to that person every two weeks, your chances of thinking about them increase the closer you get to the two weeks. 

According to the American Psychological Association, confirmation bias is the tendency to look at evidence that supports a preconception and dismisses contradictory evidence. It is a type of cognitive bias that favors information that confirms preexisting beliefs.

Meaning, if you believe that lefties are inherently more creative, you will trust evidence that supports your bias. Though confirmation biases seem innocuous, they can enforce dichotomous thinking and make you more susceptible to misinformation.

To understand how a confirmation bias works, we should understand how our brains gather and organize information. 

Countless studies have broached the subject and have confirmed that the development of confirmation biases begins with heuristics. 

Before jumping into heuristics, let us briefly talk about working-memory.  Working-memory, specifically short-term retention, acts as a temporary placeholder for information, and it changes depending on the information added to it. It is responsible for organizing information and calling it forth when necessary. Since this process is a bit laborious, the brain developed shortcuts to speed up the decision-making process— heuristics. 

Heuristics is a primeval vestige which our ancestor used to ensure survival. A hunter out in the field might see a large footprint and hear a growl in the distance. Based on past experience, he or she will come to the conclusion that danger lies ahead and that they do not stand a chance if they are alone.  

These biases cemented themselves into your unconscious and slowly influenced the choices you make. Because they reside in your unconscious mind, they are difficult to change. An easy example, 1+ 1 has always been 2. We believe and adhere to this principle because all mathematical evidence proves it. However, if the principles of mathematics were to change and state that 1+1 is 3, we would all have a difficult time adjusting.  

Additionally, neuropsychologists believe that once a belief pattern is established, our neurons prefer to keep firing on the established path rather than rearranging themselves to accommodate new information. 

In terms of decision-making, heuristics and confirmation biases are helpful. They keep us from making the same mistakes more than once. But there are instances where it harms others.

Confirmation biases can be harmful within the context of group-thinking. It can cause misinformation, lead to dichotomous thinking, negatively affect your decision-making process. At its worse, it can create polarization. 

Dichotomous Thinking

Dichotomous thinking is characterized by extreme thinking about yourself or others. When coupled with a bias, it may lead you to surround yourself with evidence that proves your point, which obviously enforces what you already think. 

For example, you arrive early on a first date, and your date is late. After twenty minutes, they greet you with a scowl on their face. To you, they might seem grumpy, unapologetic, and rude. The bias you developed in their absence will influence the outcome of that date. You may find their dismissive attitude off-putting and may think that they are not interested. In fact, you may even develop feelings of resentment or annoyance. Makes sense. But, you could also give them the benefit of the doubt. 

Dichotomous thinking could be taken a bit further. For example, your arduous zeal for your beliefs might lead you to disrespect or insult someone else’s. 

Misinformation

Confirmation biases can also make you susceptible to misinformation. Studies have shown that biases can cause an inferential error in regards to human reasoning. By definition, confirmation bias will always privilege information that confirms what you already believe. Hence, you will overlook opportunities to find the truth.

For example, a study done by Peter Wason in 1960 asked participants to finish a number sequence like 2-4-6 …. I am pretty sure you said 8. Like most of us, a large majority of participants only tested positive integers (like 8) but failed to test other theories that might prove false. Only six out of twenty-nine participants correctly guessed the rule on their first trial (the answer apparently was not 8). Though Wason’s data did not account for other factors, his experiment became the cornerstone of cognitive psychology and the study of confirmation bias. 

His theory has helped psychologists better understand how outside influence affects confirmation biases. One of those influences is social media.

Social media is a ubiquitous force. In the vast sea of online content, uncertain information stands on equal footing with trustworthy and verified facts. Also, most of the information that you are exposed to has been curated according to your profile. Every time you like, share, or repost, data gets stored and used to update your preferences. The algorithm is responsible for painting a clearer picture of who you are, what you are most likely to do and think next. Unfortunately, social media can trap you in an echo chamber of opinions that you interpret as facts. Thus, making it nearly impossible for you to relinquish your beliefs, especially if 400 + of your friends believe the same way you do.

Decision-making

Science has proved that information stored in your working-memory influences your decisions. Once you have an established belief, your brain makes the easy choice. The one you have always believed in. This is referred to as a suboptimal decisional outcome. However, if you are misinformed, it is difficult to make the optimal choice.

As asserted in his paper, Haidt posited that plausibility generally prevails in the decision-making process. Studies confirmed Haidt’s paper. The findings reported that those who had a confirmation bias accepted evidence that confirmed it and made choices that aligned with their bias, regardless of the veracity of the evidence presented.   

Polarization

Among the list of outcomes of a confirmation bias, the worst-case scenario is division. The current social climate lends itself to misinformation and propaganda (Entman, 2007). Therefore, it is easy to give in to our biases. Very very easy. We are bombarded with information on an hourly basis. Something that was true a few days ago can easily be spun and misconstrued. Therefore, it is difficult to distinguish fact from fiction, so we choose whatever suits us best. The danger comes when we act and justify our actions based on our biases. 

Confirmation biases blind us from the truth and make us reluctant to hear the opposing side. If we continue to see what we want to see, it will be difficult to recognize the truth.

Fortunately, you can actively change your biases by deconstructing them. Ask yourself why you believe in what you believe? Where did that belief come from? What influenced you to believe in what you believe? And, how is it affecting you and those around you? It is a difficult process, but the first step is always learning to identify what biases you may be harboring. 

Let us know in the comments below what confirmation biases you may have had to overcome in your life.

Take care!

Additional Sources

Barth, F. Diane. “How Confirmation Bias Affects You Every Single Day.” Psychology Today, Sussex Publishers, 31 Dec. 2017, www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-couch/201712/how-confirmation-bias-affects-you-every-single-day. 

Bloom, Linda. Beware of the Perils of Confirmation Bias. 9 July 2018, www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/stronger-the-broken-places/201807/beware-the-perils-confirmation-bias. 

Cherry, Kendra. “Why Do We Favor Information That Confirms Our Existing Beliefs?” Verywell Mind, 19 Feb. 2020, www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-confirmation-bias-2795024.

Ciampaglia, Giovanni Luca. “Biases Make People Vulnerable to Misinformation Spread by Social Media.” Scientific American, Scientific American, 21 June 2018, www.scientificamerican.com/article/biases-make-people-vulnerable-to-misinformation-spread-by-social-media/.

Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony. The Big Idea: Before You Make That Big Decision…3 Sept. 2015, hbr.org/2011/06/the-big-idea-before-you-make-that-big-decision.

Dunne, Robert. Decision Making Is Caused By Information Processing And Emotion: A Synthesis Of Two Approaches To Explain The Phenomenon Of Confirmation Bias. 2016, ceur-ws.org/Vol-1751/AICS_2016_paper_52.pdf.

Goette, Lorenz, et al. Memory and (Biased) Belief Formation. 16 Sept. 2018, editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=EWM2018.

Haidt, J.: The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail: A Social Intuitionist Approach to Moral Judgement. Psychological Review. 108, 814–834 (2001)

Jonas, E et al. “Confirmation bias in sequential information search after preliminary decisions: An expansion of dissonance theoretical research on selective exposure to information.” Journal of personality and social psychology vol. 80,4 (2001): 557-71. doi:10.1037//0022-3514.80.4.557

Karduni, Alireza, et al. Can You Verifi This? Studying Uncertainty and Decision-Making About Misinformation Using Visual Analytics. 2019, webpages.uncc.edu/wdou1/publications/2018/ICWSM_2018_Confirmation_bias.pdf.

Lerman, Acland D. “United States of Dissatisfaction: Confirmation Bias Across the Partisan Divide.” United States of Dissatisfaction: Confirmation Bias Across the Partisan Divide | Selected Publications | Research | Goldman School of Public Policy | University of California, Berkeley, 2018, gspp.berkeley.edu/research/selected-publications/united-states-of-dissatisfaction-confirmation-bias-across-the-partisan-divide-5ceec68de0c9f6.22459562.